Author: Bob Sikkink
In a step-by-step iterative methodological approach data was obtained by a literature study, semi-structured interviews and three step-specific additional data collection methods. The semi-structured interviews were conducted with a selection of thirteen representative stakeholders. Moreover, the current state was determined, influential drivers and trends were identified and future scenarios created. Lastly, eleven measures were evaluated on scenario suitability. The results show that the current pharmaceutical residue state in the canals is hard to assess due to contradicting findings and many blinds spots. For the drivers a selection of 22 was made across seven domains (health, demographic, economic, societal, technological, ecological and political). The accompanying trends guide the exploration from the current state to four highly contrasting, long-term and diverging scenarios for 2050. The set of scenarios describes four unique yet plausible future Amsterdams in word and image, each with varying pharmaceutical residue presence situations. To anticipate to the various futures ‘end-of-pipe’ measures are advised as the basis of the anticipation strategy, but a continuous effort for an integrated chain approach with supporting measures is recommended. The scenarios can serve as a tool and help a constructive discussion on how to anticipate to various pharmaceutical residue presence futures.